Time to complete the UK’s escalation ladder
Published 10th June 2026
The UK’s defence strategy has evolved significantly since Cohort was founded more than 20 years ago. From a post-Cold War era to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to today’s conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the strategic context, pace of technological change and demands on defence capability have all shifted significantly.
But with increasing threats both abroad and at home, the UK’s escalation ladder still has missing rungs - limiting its ability to deter or respond effectively to modern aggression.
The evolution of defence
After the Cold War, the strategy for the UK’s defence largely focused on identifying and managingissues abroad that could become potential threats at home. While the invasion of Crimea by Russia in 2014 should have been a signal that a new chapter in the UK’s defence was starting, it was the events in Ukraine in 2022 that put the country’s defence on the national agenda. Subsequent events in the Middle East and China’s continuing investment in its defence capability have further sharpened the focus on readiness, resilience and long-term defence investment.
This has included recognition of the need for a strong defence to deter aggression and defend the nation should a military response be needed. The Strategic Defence Review was an ambitious step forward in highlighting the future for our armed forces and technology development. Sustained focus and timely delivery, particularly through the Defence Investment Plan, will be critical to enabling the scaling of capability the UK requires.
The problem that that the Defence Investment Plan has to fix can be characterised as an escalation ladder with missing rungs. The UK retains capabilities at either end of the spectrum, from limited engagements to strategic nuclear deterrence, but lacks credible options in between. In particular, the ability to deter and respond proportionately to threats such as advanced air attack or conventional ballistic missile strikes needs greater attention. This risks leaving only two response options – absorbing an attack or escalating dramatically. That potential to inflict such dilemma is visible and all too exploitable by those wishing to harm the UK. Events in Ukraine and the Middle East make it evident that the risk of missile or drone attack on key UK infrastructure and population centres cannot be discounted. It is something we need to be prepared for and, if needed, respond to with powerful, destructive but measured and proportionate force.
Filling the capability gaps
The pace of adaptation in modern warfare has accelerated. Existing technologies are being repurposed in new ways. What would once have been viewed as small hobby drones now enforce a front-line death zone in Ukraine. Even jet skis have been put into use as remotely controlled naval weapons. At the same time, vulnerabilities once seen as peripheral such as undersea infrastructure, have become central to national security, while autonomy, electronic warfare and low-cost uncrewed systems are reshaping the balance between mass, precision and survivability.
It is worth recalling that the threat from drone technology is not new. Back in the 1990s initial concepts of ‘loitering munitions’ and its subset FOG-M (Fiber Optic Guided Missiles) were already being explored in the UK and elsewhere, but the resources and investment were not readily available to develop the technology. Fast-forward to today, and drones have quickly become essential to modern warfare.
The growing use of small, low-cost uncrewed systems has also reinforced the vulnerability of large, high-value platforms if they are not supported by the right mix of sensors, communications, defensive systems and autonomous adjuncts. Individual warships represent a powerful and intimidating capability but are also high-value prey for adversaries equipped with low-cost asymmetric capabilities. Naval capability, including the plan to invest in the hybrid Navy concept and more submarines, as outlined in the Strategic Defence Review, will be exceptionally important to building out our escalation response ladder.
The battlespace is becoming progressively more transparent. The proliferation of ISTAR assets, satellites, drones, electronic warfare systems and land-based surveillance is making it harder to conceal activity, concentrate forces or rely on traditional assumptions about mass and manoeuvre. This has significantly increased the value of secure communications, rapid decision-making and resilient, distributed capability.
Driving industry growth
The Strategic Defence Review sets a useful direction of travel, particularly around maritime capability, operational resilience and the ability to contribute to wider allied defence. The challenge now is delivery. Continued delay to the Defence Investment Plan risks slowing momentum at precisely the moment when industry is preparing to invest in the skills, supply chains and technologies needed to support the Review’s ambitions.
Quite rightly, defence spending must remain accountable to Parliament and the UK taxpayer. However, defence procurement must retain enough flexibility to support innovation without allowing programmes to become overburdened by incremental requirements. When requirements are repeatedly expanded in the course of development, the result can be higher cost, longer timelines and systems that are less effective than originally intended.
To address this, there is a need to continue embracing capability innovation and importantly bring Parliament and the public on the journey. A strong UK defence may be costly, but the potential consequences of a weak defence can have a lasting and dire impact.
Alongside greater domestic investment, the UK must continue to work closely with allies and trusted partners to strengthen interoperability, build resilient supply chains and sustain the industrial depth needed for prolonged operations. At the same time, the UK should preserve sovereign capability in the areas that matter most to operational independence and national resilience.
This is where Cohort and its businesses can make a distinctive contribution: bridging the space between large-scale platform delivery and early-stage innovation, providing the flexible, upgradeable mission-critical systems that turn platforms into effective operational capability, at volume. From EM Solutions’ resilient naval satcom to ELAC SONAR’s advanced sonars alongside Chess Dynamics’ electro-optical fire control systems and SEA’s trainable countermeasures, the Group is well placed to support the UK’s future defence needs with agility, depth and proven expertise.
Prioritise delivery
The UK’s defence challenge is no longer one of diagnosis. The threats are clear, the capability priorities are increasingly well understood, and the technology skills are available. What matters now is delivery: matching strategic ambition with investment, procurement agility and sustained collaboration between government and industry.
Completing the UK’s escalation ladder is an essential part of ensuring that Britain can deter aggression, protect its interests and contribute credibly to allied security in a more contested world.
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